Preakness 2018: Updated Predictions, Betting Lines and Post Time

Preakness 2018: Updated Predictions, Betting Lines and Post Time

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Mike Smith rides Justify through the fourth turn and unto victory during the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs Saturday, May 5, 2018, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

John Minchillo/Associated Press

The Preakness Stakes always presents a challenge to the best three-year-old horses, but the 2018 edition of the race could add another element to the mix. 

Not only will some horses, like Triple Crown contender Justify, have to deal with racing twice in two weeks, they’ll have to battle the elements. 

The conditions at Pimlico Race Course will be similar to the Kentucky Derby, as poor weather is affecting Maryland in the buildup to the race. 

In addition to weathering the poor track, Justify must fend off a new quartet of challengers and the second-place horse from the Kentucky Derby.  

       

Preakness Stakes Information

Post Time: 6:20 p.m. ET 

TV: NBC

     

Betting Lines (via OddsShark)

Justify (-225; Bet $225 to win $100) 

Good Magic (+325) 

Quip (+1,400) 

Bravazo (+1,800) 

Diamond King (+2,000) 

Lone Sailor (+2,000) 

Tenfold (+3,300) 

Sporting Chance (+4,000) 

    

Predictions

Justify Thrives In Poor Conditions Once Again 

The unforgiving weather pattern hanging over the northeastern part of the United States is going to play a role in the track conditions for the Preakness Stakes. 

With a 100 percent chance of rain Friday and thunderstorms projected for Saturday, per Weather.com, Justify will be running in similar conditions to the sloppy course he won on at Churchill Downs. 

USA Today’s Dan Wolken gave us a look at the muddy track after Wednesday’s post draw: 

ESPN’s Lane Gold noted how rare the occurrence of sloppy tracks at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes are in the same year: 

While other horses may find the track difficult to work with, Justify proved during the first leg of the Triple Crown that the conditions won’t hamper his dominance. 

Given the small field and Justify’s experience on a sloppy track in a big race, it will be hard to pick against trainer Bob Baffert’s horse Saturday, which could lead to an exciting three weeks of Triple Crown buildup. 

      

A Challenger With Long Odds Emerges As A Contender

This isn’t as far-fetched of a prediction as it would be for the Kentucky Derby given the smaller field, but with Justify entering the Preakness as the overwhelming favorite, there’s still room for horses with long odds to produce a shock. 

In the worst-case scenario for Justify, he fails to adjust the conditions once again and struggles to control the race, which leaves the door open for one of the other seven horses to dominate. 

Good Magic is the obvious choice to take over in this situation, but he is already expected to be at the front of the race following his second-place finish at the Kentucky Derby. 

That leaves a collection of six horses with mixed results over the last few months to choose from to become the surprise of the competition. 

Quip appears to be the biggest threat of the group to Justify and Good Magic, as he took first and second in his last two races. 

OLDSMAR, FL - MARCH 10: Quip #10, ridden by Florent Geroux wins the Tampa Bay Derby on Tampa Derby Day at Tampa Bay Downs on March 10, 2018 in Oldsmar, FL. (Photo by Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images)

Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images

Aboard Quip is jockey Florent Geroux, who won the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago with Monomoy Girl. 

Geroux also experienced success with Gun Runner in 2016, as the jockey-horse combination won the Louisiana Derby and took third in the Kentucky Derby. 

Kentucky Derby participants Bravazo and Lone Sailor could be factors in the race because of their experience on the muddy course at Churchill Downs. 

Diamond King, Tenfold and Sporting Chance are the ultimate darkhorses in the race, and if either one of the trio finds a way to reach the front of the race, we could witness one of the biggest surprises in recent Triple Crown race history. 

      

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90 

Breaking Sports News

via Bleacher Report – Front Page https://ift.tt/yO6Sgr

May 17, 2018 at 12:09PM

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