Don’t be surprised if Aaron Judge hits 15 fewer home runs

Don’t be surprised if Aaron Judge hits 15 fewer home runs

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We are nothing if not beholden to our psychological biases.

If I ask you how many home runs Aaron Judge will hit in 2018, you will likely say “somewhere in the mid-40s.” After all, it’s rare for players to hit more than 50 home runs in back-to-back seasons, and you would expect some level of regression.

It’s a completely reasonable analysis.

Taking a look at the projections from some leading information sources, I see similar expectations. One website says 45. Another says 42. A spring magazine says 43.

MLB News

via http://www.espn.com – MLB http://www.espn.com

February 14, 2018 at 06:47AM

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