We are nothing if not beholden to our psychological biases.
If I ask you how many home runs Aaron Judge will hit in 2018, you will likely say “somewhere in the mid-40s.” After all, it’s rare for players to hit more than 50 home runs in back-to-back seasons, and you would expect some level of regression.
It’s a completely reasonable analysis.
Taking a look at the projections from some leading information sources, I see similar expectations. One website says 45. Another says 42. A spring magazine says 43.